Who Will the Opry Induct Next?

It’s been over a year and a half since Dierks Bentley became the newest member of the Grand Ole Opry, and since he joined two Opry members have died and others (like Stonewall Jackson) have had public rifts with the famous institution. While the Opry has had longer membership droughts, since 1990 the they have inducted an average of over one member per year, and the Opry seems to be in need of new blood.

The Opry’s search for membership is complicated by the realities of contemporary country radio. The Opry has always had high artistic standards and a commitment to traditional country, bluegrass and gospel music, and few young artists of any notability are making music that the Opry’s management and fans would find suitable. The selection process is also highly subjective and unpredictable. Some artists are seemingly inducted before their careers even begin (Randy Travis in 1986, Dierks Bentley in 2005) while some legends are not offered membership until their best days are behind them (Charley Pride in 1993, Ralph Stanley in 2000).

In the current radio climate, I think the Opry fears getting betrayed even by those artists that do have traditional influences (no one saw “Honky Tonk Badonkadonk” coming when Trace Adkins joined the Opry in 2003). Thus, we may go several years before the next Opry induction and the next member may not even have hit country radio yet. However, if the Opry decides to pull its next member from the ranks of current radio artists, I believe that the following are the most likely candidates:

• Josh Turner: Josh Turner received an encore on his first ever performance on the Grand Ole Opry, and most artists who can boast of such an accomplishment have become Opry members. Turner’s neo-traditional, Gospel-influenced bass voice is reminiscent of that of Opry member Randy Travis. Furthermore, he is the most-played current artist on Opry flagship station WSM AM, and in March 2007, Turner was the special guest for WSM’s “Intimate Evening” interview series that usually features country music legends. In my opinion, if Turner can produce a complete album that yields several radio hits of “Long Black Train” or “Your Man” quality, he’s in.

• Carrie Underwood: Underwood has guested on the Opry regularly since winning American Idol, but it’s hard to tell whether the Opry keeps asking her back because they genuinely like her style or simply because she sells out every Opry show she plays. If Underwood continues at her current pace, she’ll soon headline a major tour and she — or her publicist — may consider her “too big” for the Opry, but she continues to play the show regularly despite unprecedented success. She has demonstrated versatility as well: her cover of “Stand By Your Man” was a highlight of one 2006 show and her Grammy performance proved to a large audience that she has the ability to perform traditional material. Adding Carrie would allow the Opry to add a major contemporary star to their roster without seriously compromising musical integrity.

• Joe Nichols: Turner, Underwood and Nichols constitute the trio of current radio stars that most frequently appear on the Opry. Nichols has also befriended Opry member George Jones and appeared with him in a recent concert at the Ryman Auditorium. While his style and influences are more traditional than most radio artists, several of his hits have been silly novelty songs. Furthermore, his success has been inconsistent and his career accomplishments limited.

• Ashley Monroe: While the release of Ashley’s debut album has been delayed by incompetence at the floundering Sony label and her two lead singles have flopped at country radio, Ashley has practically become a regular on the Opry. The reasons are obvious: she possesses the kind of humble sense of tradition that the Opry values, her music is more country than just about anything on the radio today and her voice is stunning. She has also exhibited great range in her Opry performances, performing excellent cuts from her unreleased album, Gospel standards like “In the Garden” and even a cover of a Gram Parsons classic. Normally I would say that the shaky start to Ashley’s career bodes very poorly for an eventual invitation to the Opry, but she fits the Opry mold perfectly. Furthermore, the Opry has certainly not felt a need to induct the genre’s biggest stars over the past decade and the management might just be fed up enough with the mediocrity most of emerging artists to extend an invitation to a low-profile major label artist that does things the way they like.

• The Grascals: Bluegrass music has not bastardized itself the way contemporary country has, so the Opry’s next inductee just might be a bluegrass group. The Grascals are Opry regulars, Grammy nominees and reigning IBMA Entertainers of the Year.

• Mountain Heart: Another critically-acclaimed bluegrass group that performs on the Opry regularly. They are also members of Skaggs Family Records, the imprint owned by Opry member Ricky Skaggs.

• An established traditionalist: As noted above, the Opry’s membership practices are sometimes puzzling and there are several major neo-traditionalists that have not yet received invitations. Some (George Strait) never demonstrated sufficient appreciation for the Opry tradition to win management approval, while others (Lee Ann Womack, LeAnn Rimes) may not have had enough consistent success to merit inclusion.

What’s your take?