With regard to footnotes, etc., the original article is not a research report but rather the full text of a speech. Thus, you might expect that it would not be footnoted and that the evidence is presented rather casually. Of course, the fact that Firestein hasn’t published his raw numbers and detailed statistical methodology is a valid criticism.

Ultimately I agree with you that Firestein doesn’t prove a causal link but I think that he presents more evidence than you are giving him credit for.

To support his claim, he would have to establish that Bush’s vote total rose and fell in correlation with country radio penetration. If Bush’s voting percentage was highest in say, Mississippi, then that should also be the state that has the highest country radio station penetration. Given the fact that he didn’t include any supporting evidence for his claims – nary a footnote, a sign that this really isn’t a serious attempt at research – all he’s written is an opinion piece without any factual support. To present it as anything more than that would be disingenuous.

In my opinion you correctly cite the reason for rural America’s disillusionment with the Iraq War and this reason has nothing to do with music. At the same time, we’ve seen a decrease in the number of patriotic anthems and the songs that have been released recently that address war (”I Just Came Back From a War,” “Love Me If You Can,” etc.) present a cynical or apologetic perspective. So I don’t think that the Iraq War example disproves Firestein’s arguments and it may even support them.

The debate about which way the influence flows – artist to listener or listener to artist – is probably irresolvable and these two theories are not necessarily mutually exclusive. I think that it’s a two way street and country music does more than simply “reflect” its audience.

Snark aside, there are volumes of academic research detailing the solidification of the southern states as the most reliable Republican electoral votes in modern presidential elections. That country music is also most played on the radio in those same states does not automatically indicate a causal relationship between the two, and Firestein fails to establish one.

Country music *reflects* its audience; it can’t make that audience march in lock-step.

Here’s a good example. One of the most telling statistics I’ve seen is that support for the Iraq War in rural areas was in the 75 percent range in 2003. A few months ago, it was in the 30s — lower than even the urban areas.

That’s because a huge number of those soldiers coming home in body bags are from small towns and rural areas. The consequences of the war have hit country-music markets the hardest.

Now you’d think the supposedly “red state” country audience would be more supportive of the war. But the opposite is true. No amount of simplistic flag-waving or political propaganda can change reality.

I do agree that the Dems have sucked at recruiting like-minded country acts, Willie, Tim McGraw, Merle Haggard, The Dixie Chicks, than the Reps have.