42nd CMA Awards Predictions
Handicapping the CMA Awards this year is a difficult task due the bizarre nominations in categories like Album and New Artist, but the staff has done what they can to predict the outcome.
Entertainer of the Year
Everyone (other than Ben) seems to agree this is the year Brad Paisley will break through and win his first Entertainer trophy. He’s consistently releasing quality videos, supports his opening acts, and whatever you think of his musical output, he at least values creativity while still drawing inspiration from tradition. Not to mention his string of number one singles. He should win and he deserves it over the other nominees.
Kenny Chesney has a bruised foot working in his favor, but will his comments after the ACM Awards come back to bite him or will the competing CMA reward him for his honesty? And are voters ready to give him his third straight trophy and fourth overall, tying him with Alabama for most consecutive wins and Garth brooks for number of total wins? Is Kenny Chesney really that dominant of a talent? And really, how often do you hear about Little Kenny’s opening acts?
Sugarland is riding a wave of support and did supplant Rascal Flatts amongst the nominees, so a win by them would be huge, but not entirely surprising.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Paisley seems to be the consensus for Male Vocalist as well. It would be his second award in this category and he makes for a logical choice. Don’t count out George Strait, though. He’s a sentimental favorite amongst the industry and fans alike and he had the highest debuting single of his career with “I Saw God Today.” His selection as the ACM Artist of the Decade most likely came too late to influence the voting process, but it indicates the affection for Strait, especially considering that he hasn’t yet won the Entertainer or Male Vocalist at either awards show during this decade.
Female Vocalist of the Year
For the Female Vocalist award, I have to think enough of an emphasis is placed on vocal ability to exclude Taylor Swift despite her receiving a nomination and Ben predicting a win for her. After all, how do you justify not nominating one of the format’s biggest stars?
It’s been mentioned elsewhere, so I won’t go into detail, but not nominating Trisha Yearwood should be a criminal offense. Carrie Underwood is the odds-on favorite to win, putting her one trophy behind Martina McBride and Reba McEntire. Like Chesney, has her output been good enough for her to receive that kind of recognition? Miranda Lambert seems to be the only real competition, but Jim’s prediction is still a bold move.
New Artist of the Year
Depending on what your definition of “new” is, the New Artist category is up for grabs. Technically, the only new artist/group is Lady Antebellum, who picked up the New Duo/Vocal Group award at the ACM Awards. Kellie Pickler’s success hasn’t lived up to her press, Rodney Atkins had an impressive run before stinking it up with “Invisible,” and Jason Aldean hasn’t lived up to the promise of his debut album. James Otto is as good a pick as any of the others, so how do you choose?
Album of the Year
Strait’s album is easily the strongest of this anemic collection of nominees, while the fact that Alan Jackson wrote all 17 songs on his album could make an impression on the voters. Carrie Underwood probably has the most hype, so it seems to be another category up for grabs, although everyone chose Troubadour to win except for me.
You can find a list of all the nominees here.
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November 11, 2008 at 3:00 pm Permalink
You’re very brave to put your predictions up so close to the event. Does the winner (most right) get a prize, like a pay rise?
November 11, 2008 at 3:02 pm Permalink
I really think this is Miranda’s year to win Female Vocalist. I believe that Carrie and Taylor’s musical styles are so similar that the pop-country radio vote will be split pretty much right down the middle, hurting both artists chance of winning.I need to add that I believe Carrie is the far superior between the two but that won’t matter to the voters,imo. Whereas Miranda attracts a different kind of voter that should vote for her in record numbers this year giving her a shot to win this category.
Other than that category I concur totally with Brady’s picks.
November 11, 2008 at 3:07 pm Permalink
awww dude, we totally should have started a betting pool! it’s not too late……
and if it’s not already clear, I didn’t choose any of these on the basis of merit, these predictions are based solely on how I think the industry wants to present itself.
November 11, 2008 at 3:12 pm Permalink
Is it too late to get Joey + Rory nominated for the duo award?
:-)
November 11, 2008 at 3:24 pm Permalink
DISCLAIMER: My picks are for who I think WILL win. My choices would look a lot different if I was choosing who I WANT to win…so there, now you cant bash me for picking Rascal Flatts…
November 11, 2008 at 3:25 pm Permalink
Oh yeah, ditto Kelly.
November 11, 2008 at 3:28 pm Permalink
Who do I THINK will win? – Who I WANT to win?
EOTY – Brad Paisley – Sugarland
MV – Brad Paisley – Brad Paisley
FV – Taylor Swift – Miranda Lambert
VG – Rascal Flatts – Lady Antebellum
VD – Sugarland – Sugarland
Single – Stay – Stay
Album – Troubadour – Troubadour
Song – Stay – Stay
ME – Life In A Northern Town – Every Other Weekend
MV – Waitin On A Woman – Stay
November 11, 2008 at 3:33 pm Permalink
Occasional Hope, the line between bravery and stupidity can be mighty thin.
——
I thought “prediction” was rather self-explanatory…
November 11, 2008 at 3:47 pm Permalink
I’m going to have to agree with Brody on every one, except maybe Song of the Year. And you two (Brady & Brody) are brothers? or cousins? or what?… just noticed you had the same last names, pretty neat.
November 11, 2008 at 3:55 pm Permalink
Brady, if that “prediction” comment was aimed at me, I just wanted to be certain as its my first rodeo and all ;-)
November 11, 2008 at 4:03 pm Permalink
I should remind everyone that, at the time of my retirement, I was undefeated in The 9513 Editors’ prediction pool.
November 11, 2008 at 4:11 pm Permalink
There’s obviously some alarm among some of you that people might think you actually liked Rascal Flatts (g).
November 11, 2008 at 4:53 pm Permalink
Two things are interesting (although not bad, mind you): Kenny Chesney receiving no voter predictions in the Entertainer category, and “Stay” being barely notable in the Single and Song categories although it won the ACM trophy.
November 11, 2008 at 5:39 pm Permalink
I think Kellie Pickler will win, and deserves to win the New Artist — she has no good competition
I think Carrie will swoop the Female Vocalist, but I would LOVE for it to land in Miranda’s hand :)
November 11, 2008 at 6:21 pm Permalink
I predict with 100% certainty that I will be completely apathetic regarding these awards and the ultimate winners….(lol)
Matt C. should have been allowed to pick his favorites to see if he could maintain his streak! Oh well…..
November 11, 2008 at 6:44 pm Permalink
Wow. It’s been like an hour since I read this post and I just now got the “Little Kenny” joke. But I like it!
November 11, 2008 at 7:53 pm Permalink
Drew: And you two (Brady & Brody) are brothers? or cousins? or what?… just noticed you had the same last names, pretty neat.
I’ll take this one, gentlemen. As revealed previously, Brady and Brody are brothers and sextuplets. Their siblings include Bredy, Bridy, Brudy, and Brydy.
November 11, 2008 at 10:13 pm Permalink
“Kellie Pickler’s success hasn’t lived up to her press”
It’s more like Kellie’s label hasn’t lived up to promote her talent as much as others were promoted so they could become more successful. See my post here
http://www.the9513.com/thoughts-on-the-42nd-cma-awards/#comment-106093
It takes more promotion to generate more success. Last year Taylor won this partly because she was the most promoted with the most airplay and sales. This year Rodney fits that description with 4 #1 hits and a near double platinum album. If Kellie’s first 4 singles were picked as carefully, promoted and played as much as Rodney’s I bet she’d also be close to 2x platinum at least.
Rodney and Kellie are the most successful and this is their 2nd and last year to qualify so one of them should win or they will be snubbed. Lady A is a wildcard.
November 12, 2008 at 8:49 am Permalink
since we’re making predictions, i’d like to predict that i fall asleep sometime in the first 15 minutes of the program. thus, i shall be saved.
November 12, 2008 at 10:51 am Permalink
Carrie WILL and SHOULD win female vocalist. Taylor i s a horrible singer and everyone knows that. It seems the critics are afraid to mention her bad vocals in reviews– so they focus on her stage presence and hair flipping/drum beating at concert, or her shiney guitar.. to avoid telling the hard cold truth.
Look- I am a straight forward person. I love Miranda Lambert and would love to see her win this one day– but I also love Carrie, and no one deserves this award more then she does.
Carrie has 4 number 1 hits off Carnival Ride this past year, and it is about to go Triple Platinum, same as Swifty’s over-hyped tweenybopper album. So in essence, Carrie has had a bigger year then Swift, who only had 2 number one hits, if you include Love Story.
Whoever said that Carrie and Taylor have similar musical stylings is way off the mark. Taylor is a one trick pony who writes about all the guys that dumped her over and over and over again, till it is the same song on repeat. She cannot sing, has no range or vocal power, and embarasses herself at every single award show with her horrendous vocal performances. She is over-rated and a pop singer.
Carrie refuses to remix her songs for pop radio as she wants to remain true to country music. Taylor has remixed every single one of her songs to pop radio- and she is a pop sellout want to be. None of her songs on the new album remotely sound country, and it is clear that Taylor is trying to have her cake and eat it too by manipulating sales with pop remixes and putting out songs that do not have a stitch of country in them.
why is country music giving Taylor a free pass for pop remixing, when they slammed Shania, Faith, leanne rimes, etc- for doing this same exact thing? Sounds very hypocritical to me– to have adouble standard. The golden child with the horrid vocals gets to remix her songs to pop all she likes with no repercussions– yet everyone else is slammed.
It is an insult to country music that she is allowed to do this. Does anyone here actually think Taylor is country? If so, wow.
November 12, 2008 at 10:55 am Permalink
I agree with Joey. Taylor IS NOT VOCALIST. She is a talented young song writer for teens, but I don’t really like her bubble gum pop songs personally. Then again, I am 35 and prefer adult songs- not pop songs about teen love.
Miranda and Carrie are truly the new faces of country music for this generation, for the ladies. Kellie has personality, but does not impress me as an artist. Taylor seems very over-rated to me, and is also getting really arrogant.
I think that it is a pre-requisite that to win a vocalist related award, you have to be a good vocalist. Taylor needs to spend more time with a vocal coach to learn to stay on key, and less time on MTV remixing her songs for pop radio.
I just can’t respect Taylor. Sorry. If she had stayed true to country music like Miranda and Carrie did, without remixing her songs, I might give her a chance as a songwriter, though never as a vocalist.
November 12, 2008 at 10:58 am Permalink
I think Album will go to either George or Alan because the old boys club will win again… but Carrie definetly deserves to win it, if life were fair.
Carrie had 4 number 1 hits off this album, and she wrote 3 of those songs. She has proven she is a real artist, and not just a great singer.
I was not a carrie fan at first, I admit, because I thought she might be just a good singer without any real depth to her. I was wrong. I saw her in concert in Oklahoma recently, and she pulled a young girl on stage to sing All American girl with her. It was so warm, genuine, and real– that Carrie proved to me she is more then just a pretty face with a great voice. she has real convictions.
November 12, 2008 at 12:14 pm Permalink
Guys, I have this feeling that George Strait will win EOTY tonight. This will cross out Paisley, keith and kenny (no hard feelings). Forget Sugarland–they ain’t ready for this title.
November 12, 2008 at 12:48 pm Permalink
@Matt – It’s a shame you weren’t able to enter our first ever betting pool.
@CMW – Thanks for taking care of that one.
November 12, 2008 at 2:01 pm Permalink
Why are you guys just ignoring Keith Urban? He toured most of the year and a world tour for that matter and received rave reviews! I remember reading one review where the guy had picked Brad as EOTY, but then saw Keith and changed his mind. He may not have #1 records like Brad and Kenny, but to me he’s the better entertainer than any listed. Just because Brad has not won it doesn’t mean it should “be his turn” as some are saying. He goes a little to the boring side to me.
Maureen you have a feeling about George winning tonight, well the DJ on my station said he had a premonition just this morning that Sugarland will take home the trophy. Guess we will see!
November 13, 2008 at 8:58 am Permalink
Keith Urban doesn’t even play country! His guitar is to soft rock what Richard Marx’s piano was!
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